In their previous seven matches in what is a celebrated rivalry over 127 years, the Welsh have won on six occasions.  With the Red Dragons two time Grand Slam champions over that period, a loss at home to the Scottish would certainly represent a nadir for Warren Gatland and his beleaguered men.

Still, while Wales have dominated their enmity with 63 wins in 114 clashes, it has not been a constant theme of Welsh supremacy.

In fact, from 1999 to 2003, Wales only won one of five clashes.  This includes Scotland’s triumphant victory over Wales at Murrayfield in the final Five Nations, where Gary Armstrong and his powerful side would score four tries to beat the Welsh 33-20.

Wales are a team teetering on the brink of a crisis, but when looking at their squad, it is hard to imagine why.  The core of the team that won the Grand Slam in 2008 is still intact, but it is not the fact that Gatland and his side are not winning, but more the manner in which they are losing.

Some two seasons ago this current group of players had redefined Wales, playing with a delicious blend of classic running Welsh rugby, intermingled with a touch of Waikato hardness and the defensive sharpness of the old London Wasps.

They had capped off their brilliant 2008 by being the only Northern Hemisphere team to beat a Tri Nations power, and surely had the world at their feet.

They weren’t poor in last year’s Six Nations; almost coming back to beat the French in Paris, and only just losing to eventual champions Ireland.

But it was their narrow five point win against Italy in Rome 2009 that had some whispering that they had not taking the game seriously enough despite their title defence still being alive, and it was here that they began to look a touch predictable.

This was coupled with a second guessing of their attitude.

Not taking a Six Nations game sincerely with the championship still on the line was one thing, but their comments were becoming touch overconfident.  Being almost condescending about the New Zealanders, Samoans and Argentineans showed that maybe Wales had forgotten that the best rugby teams talk on the field, not off it.

But they also showed their inconsistency, looking competitive against All Blacks, unimaginative against Samoa, precise against the pumas and bereft of any ideas or structure against Australia.

Against England it was the same.

They looked lacklustre and disorganised against England, before Alun-Wyn Jones’ brain snap conspired to hand the game to their opponents.  But they then suddenly awoke from their reverie to start playing (probably for the first time in several tests) with a running attack reminisce of the great Welsh sides to nearly come back at the English.

Scotland, worryingly for Wales, come battle hardened after a gruelling encounter with an excellent and powerful French side.

Unlike the Welsh, they arrive talking a straight and self reflective game.

Coach Andy Robinson has said that Scotland’s fans are right to expect results and that there were certain areas where they simply were not good enough against Les Bleus.  It appears that the biggest demand the Heineken and World Cup winning coach is putting on his team is that they continually improve and focus on how to put together a winning performance.

They were stunned by an immense France, especially up front, but it is unfair to say they were wiped from the hallowed turf of Murrayfield.

There was the usual grit in defence, and never did heads drop.  There were even a number of promising attacking raids and embarrassingly for Scotland the problem with this was that when a player broke through the French defence, he had no support.

This is indicative of the fact that Scotland is re-learning how to score tries.

Wales themselves may need to relearn their play at the moment, looking very “un-Wales” at this time.  

While many may lament that the sparkling magic from their attack and defence may be missing, one feels that the cure to their ills may lay in the simple cliché that “it all starts up front”.

Certainly if there was an area of play that the Welsh would have needed to analyse this week, it would be in the forwards, where they were embarrassed by England courtesy of Nick Easter and James Haskell in the loose, and taken apart in the air via the English captain.

For all of the heroics of Martyn Williams, Wales seem to lack the necessary balance not only in their loose forwards, but also in the second row.  Losing two British and Irish Lions from their front row didn’t help, but injuries are part and parcel of the modern game.

If they cannot get on top of an increasingly abrasive Scotland pack that had a gruelling litmus test against an intimidating French eight last week, Wales surely cannot win this game.

Three changes are made to the Scottish team, which make them look so much stronger.

Outstanding tighthead Euan Murray returns to the side, Rory Lamont returns from injury to the left wing, while Dan Parks comes in at fly half.  

While Robinson and Scotland have stated they wish to play more with the ball in hand, noted kicker Parks return from international exile comes as the Thistles believe there principal cause for defeat was failure to control the territorial game against France.

Sean Lamont is moved into the midfield, after the twin French juggernauts caused the Scottish defence so many issues last week.

Wales bring in Osprey Jonathan Thomas to join his regional partner Jones in the second row, while Leigh Halfpenny comes in for Tom James.  Three Cardiff Blues, Gethin Jenkins, Tom Shanklin and Sam Warburton have been bought in as cover on the bench.

If Scotland beat Wales by more than 15 points, they will leapfrog them into eight position on the International Rugby Board standings.

However, the Welsh still have a classier looking team on paper, so if they can play with purpose and cut out their errors in general play, they may be able to re-discover their winning touch in front of their faithful at the cathedral that is Millennium Stadium.

Date: Saturday, February 13
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 14:30 GMT

Wales: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Leigh Halfpenny, 13 James Hook, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Gareth Cooper, 8 Ryan Jones (Captain), 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Andy Powell, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Jonathan Thomas, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Gareth Williams, 1 Paul James.  Replacements: 16 Huw Bennett, 17 Gethin Jenkins, 18 Bradley Davies, 19 Sam Warburton, 20 Richie Rees, 21 Andrew Bishop, 22 Tom Shanklin.

Scotland: 15 Chris Paterson, 14 Thom Evans, 13 Sean Lamont, 12 Graeme Morrison, 11 Rory Lamont, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Chris Cusiter, 8 Johnnie Beattie, 7 John Barclay, 6 Kelly Brown, 5 Alastair Kellock, 4 Nathan Hines, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Alasdair Dickinson Replacements: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Allan Jacobsen, 18 Richie Gray, 19 Alan MacDonald, 20 Mike Blair, 21 Phil Godman, 22 Max Evans

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